Sunday, January 10, 2021

How to Lie with Statistic


There is usually a heathy amount of trash talking each gaming session, friendly banter as it were - but here we'll dig into the data and let the numbers speak for themselves.


1. View Correlations with Skepticism

High Character levels (one character here is level 35) and Damage to Monsters of zero should be viewed with Skepticism.


2. Relationships Don’t Last Forever

There are periods of linearity where "the Awesome" growth occurs at a constant rate, but eventually, growth levels off because almost nothing continues growing indefinitely.


3. Always Look at the Axes on a Chart

As a first principle, the y-axis on a bar chart should always start at 0. If not, it’s easy to prove an argument by manipulating the range. Ranged Kills of one or two are clearly a suspicious argument.


4. Small Samples Produce Shocking Statistics

Would you be surprised if I told you the highest cancer rates tend to occur in the counties with the smallest populations? Not that shocking. How about when I tell you that the Damage Taken stat does not have a green ring.

Shocking!


5. Look at all the Numbers that Describe a Dataset

Checking the sample size can be one way to avoid getting fooled by data, but only if the sample size is provided. Another trick used to mislead consumers of data is to avoid listing relevant numbers that describe a dataset, such as someone joining the game late. I'm pretty sure we were all there from the start.


10. Don’t Place Too Much Faith in any One Statistic

The data was analyzed by another human, who works for an institution, which may have outside funders with differing motivations. The statistic or graph was delivered to you by a publisher that has its own interests in getting you to believe one idea, which is Sturnim failed to achieve a single green ring (the data was provided by an anonymous banana).


All this leads to two conclusions:

If you put all your faith in one number, then you will be overfitting to the particular circumstances that produced the number.

Statistics and data are never purely objective. A statistic is one interpretation of uncertain data designed to persuade.

Oh, and the third thing, screenshots cannot be photoshopped.