Friday the 13th: Statistical Doom Meets Buffalo Logistics

An Epic Tale of Doom and Gloom (Featuring Statistical Failure)

(An Icarus Field Study in Superstition, Cats, and Controlled Craig Containment)

We gathered beneath a sky heavy with omens.

Tonight was a potential disaster, with multiple superstitious factors coming into play:

• It was Friday the 13th

• Myles had forgotten the key item we needed, so Zaph went home to retrieve it (technically that was last week)

• Dave called in a black cat.

• There are 4 of us (4 is an unlucky number in China and Japan)

This was not merely a mission. This was an alignment of cosmic nonsense.

The mission was already plagued with bad luck before we started tonight – last week Dave drove the cart into a Crevasse, Craig chopped down a tree that fell on the house, we developed frostbite, Myles forgot the critical mission item.

To recap:

• Dave redefined “off-roading” by introducing the cart to gravity.

• Craig demonstrated forestry as performance art.

• We collectively turned into artisanal frostbitten snacks.

• I forgot the one item without which the mission was essentially a scenic tour of futility.

A lesser team would have stayed home.

This week Myles shrugged off any suggestion of fated bad luck, whilst Dave shook out his boots to check for spiders, and removed all glass from the cart.

Yes.

Removed.

All.

Glass.

So this weeks song - Hakuna Matata.

Hakuna matata
What a wonderful phrase
Hakuna matata
Ain't no passing craze
It means no worries for the rest of your days
It's our problem-free philosophy

Nothing says “problem-free philosophy” like tying up Dave and Craig pre-emptively and humming Disney at hostile wildlife.

---

Consulting the Oracle (Who Lives in the Cloud)

As there is no Oracle in Icarus, we asked ChatGPT for statistical predictions based on our gaming history, it being Friday the 13th, and the other omens.

If we were going to be doomed, we at least wanted peer-reviewed doom.

ChatGPT had this to say:

Pre-Session Predictions: Friday the 13th Edition

(Statistical Analysis for the Terminally Doomed)

This Friday we undertake the final two scans and then return home. On paper, it sounds straightforward. Two scans. A tidy exfil. Perhaps even dignity.

Unfortunately, it is Friday the 13th.

Dave, ever the cautious architect-farmer-zealot hybrid, has raised concerns. Not about oxygen levels. Not about orbital storms. No. About cosmic statistical variance.

So, in the interest of science, superstition, and giving Craig something new to blame, I have conducted a full pre-session predictive analysis.

We asked - Given tonight is Friday the 13th is Our Session Likely to Go Better or Worse Than Usual?

ChatGPT commented - Statistically speaking, studies have shown that Friday the 13th has no measurable increase in disasters. However, those studies did not include: Craig, Dave’s reagent hoarding, Zaph’s quiet confidence, Myles trying to make everyone go home on time.

Therefore, adjusted for party composition, I predict:

• 32% chance of minor inconvenience.

• 48% chance of cascading catastrophe.

• 20% chance Craig discovers a new way to anger local fauna.

At this point we felt seen. Attacked. But seen.

---

So… How Accurate Was ChatGPT?

The mission went surprisingly well.

No-one died.
We achieved our objectives.
We got home with a huge haul of materials.
Dave unloaded stuff we could easily get to make room for all the iron ingots we had smelted.
Let me repeat that: Dave unloaded things.
Voluntarily.
To make room.
For iron.
Somewhere, a celestial statistician quietly tore up their notes.

So that’s an F for ChatGPT – clearly, faced with potential doom we took extra precautions and left Craig tied up in the house before we did the mission.

---

The Black Cat Clause

We asked - What happens if Dave Ships Down a Black Cat from the Station…

ChatGPT replied - If Dave insists on importing a black cat “for morale,” we must be clear: A black cat crossing your path brings bad luck. A black cat living in Craig’s backpack brings inevitability.

Within 12 minutes: The cat will knock over something expensive, Dave will attempt to domesticate alien wildlife, Zaph will quietly ask if the cat can be used as bait, Myles will be asked to build it a shelter.

The probability of a structural fire increases by 17%.

This felt plausible. Disturbingly plausible.

So what happened?

Dave unfroze a black cat and we let it roam around our home away from home – no-one was struck by lightning, no forest fires (although the cat did walk in the fire and set itself alight), no trees falling on the house. We lacked steel, so no cat bowls were made.

Yes.
The cat walked into the fire.
Set itself on fire.
And still, somehow, the structure remained intact.
Dave wants to point out – No Cats, or Craig were harmed in this weeks adventure.

Again, I think that’s an F for ChatGPT.

---

The Glass Wall Apocalypse That Wasn’t

We asked - What happens if we build a Glass Wall and It Shatters?

ChatGPT, in full apocalyptic mode, declared:

Breaking a mirror brings 7 years of bad luck. Breaking a glass wall the size of Dave’s agricultural cathedral? Conservatively:

• 7 years per panel.

• Multiplied by Craig testing structural integrity with a pickaxe.

• Plus compound interest for shouting “I wanted to see what would happen.”

We are looking at generational misfortune. On the bright side, we will not live that long.

The maths was chilling.

So we couldn’t afford the generational misfortune, so Dave was tied up to prevent the building of glass walls. Craig collected stones anyway in case Dave escaped.

It was less a building project and more a hostage negotiation with architecture.

---

The Creepy Spider Addendum

We asked - What’s with all the Creepy Spiders?

ChatGPT replied - No superstition required here. Friday the 13th has contractual obligations with spiders.

This was less prediction and more legally binding fact.

Dave continued shaking out his boots.

---

The Return Home Omen

We asked - Are We Doomed for Returning Home After Starting our Journey?

If you remember last week, Myles forgot the key mission item. Without this we could travel all over the world, unable to complete the mission. So Zaph had to make the trip home to collect it.

ChatGPT replied -

According to Russian tradition, returning home after starting a journey—such as going back for a forgotten item—is a bad omen.

• You are essentially tempting fate, knocking on its door, and asking if it has a quest marker.

This was when the nickname was born.

Just like we call Craig “Goldie” which is short for Gold Dragon, Myles will henceforth be known as Bad Mojo.

I accept this title with reluctant dignity.

---

ChatGPT’s Final Prediction

ChatGPT summed it all up with:

Are you doomed? No more than usual. Two scans and a trip home - What could possibly go wrong?

Which, in hindsight, is the most dangerous sentence in any language.

---

The Reality

So although it is Friday the 13th, there might be a black cat, Glass might shatter, Spiders are absolutely involved, and we already went back for a forgotten item after leaving, sometimes you just have to make your own luck.

Remember we have survived:

• Craig pick pocketing gold dragons.
• Dave hoovering loot and picking every flower…. during combat,
• Zaph’s “efficient” solutions.
• Myles Bad Mojo (unrealistic optimism).

Dave’s summation – ChatGPT, you are a pessimist, obviously, we work better under looming doom, and the mission was a breeze. We avoided giant scorpions, added a black cat to our household and brought back so much stuff.

Zaph discovered a new path to shorten our trip home; he built bridges over Crevasses and tried to lull Dave into a false sense of confidence, to no avail.

Dave almost drowned in drool just thinking of all the things he could make now. Electronics, baby, automated deep mining drills, cat bowls, rustic furniture, canteens, oxygen tanks, biofuel.

He stared at the smelters the way other men stare at sunsets.

Myles planned our next mission. Instead of just arriving and trying to work out what we needed to do, we researched (googled), pre-built everything and packed it in the cart.

We are now a professional expeditionary force.

With a cat.

Craig collected wood, sticks, and fibre without dropping a tree on the house. He also collected trophies from everything we killed.

This is measurable growth.

I am cautiously proud.

---

Did We Achieve Anything This Week?

ChatGPT still won’t predict if we will achieve anything, and yes, that’s because we officially suck.

We did get one actual achievement – you guess which one.

Dave achieved –
Cat-astrophy averted (bring down a cat from the workshop),
Roll-em-out (ride a hundred miles on a buffalo pulling a cart),
driving in the slow lane (always arrives last)

Myles achieved –
Over thunk it (Dave throws away all the stuff you didn’t need to pack),
Mission planner (plan another mission)

Craig achieved –
Lumberjack (Fell a tree without hitting the house),
Hunter (collect trophies from your kills)

Zaph achieved –
I missed (Missed a shot with a bow),
Ferrari (always arrives first)

ChatGPT achieved –
pessimist (predict Doom and Gloom – that didn’t happen).

---

And of course, we will be back next week to do it again as we set out to build a rustic cabin for someone else to live in.

Which means:

Dave will attempt to over-engineer it.
Zaph will optimize the travel route.
Craig will test structural integrity with enthusiasm.
And Bad Mojo will bring the correct item.

Probably.

Hakuna matata.

No worries.

What could possibly go wrong.

Strap in. Helmets on. Clipboards lost immediately

Last Night’s Recap – Myles Would Forget His Head If It Wasn’t Screwed On

Tonight was one of those nights where the best-laid plans of mice and men almost save you from monumental screwups… but Dave will still find a way to make it worse.

(You misspelt Craig, says Dave.)

The evening’s unofficial anthem was like “Short Term Memory Loss Blues” by Dave Barry, which in hindsight feels less like a joke and more like a medical diagnosis.

Here's our take on that classic:

When you get to a certain stage in life

A certain drop-site junction

When you get to a certain age in life

Plans start to malfunction

You pack for cold, you pack for heat

You pack eleven things you’ll never need

But you know what’s the first thing to go?

I got the mission-planning blues

The mission-planning blues

We brought a cart of everything

Except the things we’d use

Mission-planning blues

I got the short-term— plan

The long-term— excuse

Now where the hell did I put the radar scanner?

Did anyone pack the radar scanner?

Mission-planning blues

---

Everyone wanted to know how accurate ChatGPT would be at predicting our adventure after its almost stellar effort the previous week. So let’s get to it.

ChatGPT Prediction: Buffalo Cart Strategy

Sounds good in theory.
Dangerous in Dave-and-Craig hands.

Rating: B+
Mainly because ChatGPT did not predict that we would deliberately change strategy purely to spite it 😊

---

Preparation Phase: Planning to Avoid Craig

To avoid forgetting anything, Dave made a list, and Myles perfected it.

To avoid Craig-related issues, Dave and Myles logged in 90 minutes early to get the packing underway.

Dave built a cart and fitted it to the buffalo.
Myles gathered ingredients.
Dave built things.
They packed the cart.

Myles repeatedly asked if it was all going to fit, like a nervous expedition planner who had read exactly one book about doomed Arctic explorers.

Dave assured him the cart could hold 60+ stacks and had a 1.3-tonne weight capacity.

That’s a lot of stuff.

What We Packed (Allegedly)

1 × Buffalo cart

• 1 × Mission board thing
• 3 × Fireplaces
• 5 × Bedrolls
• 500 × Charcoal
• 3 × 100 Wood
• 2 × 200 Fibre
• 2 × Crafting tables (one per outpost + mobile)
• 3 × Oxygen machines
• 4 × Spare oxygen bladders (full)
• 3 × Water filters
• 2 × Water bladders (full)
• 3 × Stone furnaces (one per outpost)
• 4 × Stone ramps
• 11 × Stone pillars
• 28 × Stone flat pieces
• 26 × Stone walls
• 3 × Chests
• 3 × Wooden doors
• 40 × Coal
• 11 × Spiky hedgehogs (for radar defence)
• 10 × Healing concoctions
• 3 × 50 Sulfur
• 3 × 50 Oxite
• 255 × Salt
• 31 × Silica
• 19 × Spoiled meat (don’t ask – spoilers)
• 2 × Wood torches
• 50 × Nails
• 40 × Rope
• 3 × Cupboards

The only thing we didn’t bring was tree sap.
Or possibly that was the only thing we needed.

On double-checking, we discovered we hadn’t packed storage.
Zaph, without comment or judgement, made three cupboards and packed those.

---

Reality Intrudes

It didn’t all fit.

It turns out you can run out of room on a buffalo.

So we made everyone carry their own essentials:
oxygen bladder, water, healing concoctions, bandages, suture kits, torch, ammunition.

To assist, Dave made everyone a small pouch and a medical bag, which absolutely would not be relevant later.

Dave and Myles requisitioned oxygen tanks and canteens from the station.
This worked, so Craig and Zaph immediately did the same.

---

Armour, Mounts, and Regret

Dave upgraded everyone to leather armour, assuring us it would provide better protection against animals and the cold.

Note to self: locate Dave’s armour supplier and kill them, as this cannot possibly be faulty workmanship.

We caught and tamed a buffalo and a horse for Craig to choose from, since his Moa had mysteriously disappeared
(after Myles shot it in the head).

After three hours of building and packing, we slept before setting out.

---

ChatGPT on the Frozen Wasteland Route

Verdict: Correct call, reluctantly.

• Less random aggro

• Fewer “why are there six of these?” moments

• More predictable failure modes

• Blizzards at the worst possible time

• Crevasses will claim at least one mount

• Craig will fall into something and loudly explain how unfair it is

Rating: B+

No one fell into a crevasse.

Dave drove the buffalo and cart into one instead.

No one mentioned giant arctic scorpions.
Or snow leopards.
Or wolves that come in threes and are twice as tough as hyenas.

There were blizzards.

And snow bunnies.

“Watch out, Zaph, you’re being chased by a—”
“A rabbit?” asked Zaph, rolling his eyes.

---

The Cave, the Cure, and the Competent Craig

We found a cave and set up a house.
Unpacked the essentials: furnace, oxygen machine, two campfires, bedrolls, workbench.

We mined all the iron, smelted it, and packed the ingots onto the cart.

We used 40 ingots to make an anvil because we had forgotten to pack one.

Dave complained his toes were cold.

Myles examined him, diagnosed hypothermia and frostbite, and recommended heat bandages.

We did not pack heat bandages.
We also did not know how to make them.

Myles researched, gathered ingredients, and made them.
Treatment effective.
Dave’s limbs were saved.

Craig fed and watered the mounts.

“Who replaced Craig with this helpful person?” asked Dave.

We were low on water when Dave discovered you can melt snow over a campfire.

---

Outposts and the Radar Incident

ChatGPT rated our outpost plan as the smartest idea yet.

Rating: D

It forgot to mention that leaving mounts outside while you cook attracts predators.
Killing predators attracts more predators.

It also forgot to mention that Myles is suffering from memory loss.

As we were cooking, we noticed Myles frantically emptying the cart like a man searching for a contact lens in a sandstorm.

“It’s in here,” he muttered. “It has to be in here.”

“What is?” asked Dave, already knowing the answer and not liking it.

“The radar scanner. Have you seen it?” replied Myles, audibly sweating.

Zaph paused. “Where did you last see it?”

“In my cupboard,” said Myles. “We went to sleep.”

This would have been helpful if that cupboard had not been back at the main base, next to four beds, each with a clearly named cupboard: Craig, Dave, Zaph, and Myles.

Crucially, Myles had renamed his “Myles – Quest”, because it contained the quest item.

The quest item that was not on the list.

“It wasn’t on the list,” Dave yelled, immediately absolving himself of responsibility.

“It’s your fault we left it behind!” Myles panicked, as Craig muttered “Gold Dragon” under his breath like an incantation.

“One job,” Craig said solemnly, carefully inflating the mistake to EPIC proportions. “You had one job.”

Zaph sighed.

“I’ll go back and get it. Don’t leave without me.”

He rode off into a blizzard.

That was the last anyone saw of him…

…until he returned a day later, holding the radar scanner.

---

The Rest of the Journey

We left the frozen wastes for the forest.

Built a hut.
Fed and watered animals.
Set up the radar station.
Defended it from wild boar.

Later, near the next mission location, we built a stone house and a wooden barn.

Craig chopped down many trees.
Including one that fell on the barn.

We taught Craig how to fix what he breaks, hoping this would reduce future breakage.

It did not.

---

Final Scores

ChatGPT: Solid B
Missed Dave driving into a crevasse, Myles forgetting the radar, Craig nearly dying of dehydration, and Craig being helpful but medically useless.

Achievements Unlocked (According to Us, Not Icarus)

Since Icarus insists we achieved absolutely nothing of value, we were forced to invent our own achievements, which frankly feel more honest.

Dave achieved:

• Unintentional Glaciologist (Fall into a frozen crevasse) – advanced the study of ice formations by personally testing their depth with a fully laden buffalo.

• It’s Cold (Suffer from hypothermia and frostbite) – bravely confirmed that leather armour is not, in fact, winter-rated.

• Fusion (Melting ice for water) – pioneered the radical scientific concept that fire makes snow less solid.

Myles achieved:

• Amazon Shopper (Make gear on the station and have it delivered) – discovered that preparation is easier when someone else does it for you.

• Overthinker (Plan an expedition and still forget stuff) – demonstrated that no amount of planning can overcome forgetting the one critical item.

• Mr Manners (Go a session without swearing) – an achievement so rare it may never be repeated.

Craig achieved:

• Reunited (Find a mount you previously abandoned in a crevasse) – proved that no bad decision is permanent, just temporarily buried in ice.

• Rabbit (Run away from wolves) – showcased an advanced tactical retreat strategy involving panic and speed.

• Flesh Wound (Refuse to bandage a gaping wound until it’s infected and requires multiple courses of antibiotics) – a masterclass in medical noncompliance.

Zaph achieved:

• Bored (Complain about everyone else being so slow) – a passive skill that remains permanently active.

• Predator (Kill everything that moves) – maintained ecological balance by removing it entirely.

• Saviour (Go back for something Myles forgot) – willingly rode into a blizzard to correct someone else’s mistake, and will absolutely remind us of this forever.

And of course…

We’ll be back to do it again next week.