An Epic Tale of Doom and Gloom (Featuring Statistical Failure)
(An Icarus Field Study in Superstition, Cats, and Controlled Craig Containment)
We gathered beneath a sky heavy with omens.
Tonight was a potential disaster, with multiple superstitious factors coming into play:
It was Friday the 13th
Myles had forgotten the key item we needed, so Zaph went home to retrieve it (technically that was last week)
Dave called in a black cat.
There are 4 of us (4 is an unlucky number in China and Japan)
This was not merely a mission. This was an alignment of cosmic nonsense.
The mission was already plagued with bad luck before we started tonight – last week Dave drove the cart into a Crevasse, Craig chopped down a tree that fell on the house, we developed frostbite, Myles forgot the critical mission item.
To recap:
Dave redefined “off-roading” by introducing the cart to gravity.
Craig demonstrated forestry as performance art.
We collectively turned into artisanal frostbitten snacks.
I forgot the one item without which the mission was essentially a scenic tour of futility.
A lesser team would have stayed home.
This week Myles shrugged off any suggestion of fated bad luck, whilst Dave shook out his boots to check for spiders, and removed all glass from the cart.
Yes.
Removed.
All.
Glass.
So this weeks song - Hakuna Matata.
Hakuna matata
What a wonderful phrase
Hakuna matata
Ain't no passing craze
It means no worries for the rest of your days
It's our problem-free philosophy
Nothing says “problem-free philosophy” like tying up Dave and Craig pre-emptively and humming Disney at hostile wildlife.
Consulting the Oracle (Who Lives in the Cloud)
As there is no Oracle in Icarus, we asked ChatGPT for statistical predictions based on our gaming history, it being Friday the 13th, and the other omens.
If we were going to be doomed, we at least wanted peer-reviewed doom.
ChatGPT had this to say:
Pre-Session Predictions: Friday the 13th Edition
(Statistical Analysis for the Terminally Doomed)
This Friday we undertake the final two scans and then return home. On paper, it sounds straightforward. Two scans. A tidy exfil. Perhaps even dignity.
Unfortunately, it is Friday the 13th.
Dave, ever the cautious architect-farmer-zealot hybrid, has raised concerns. Not about oxygen levels. Not about orbital storms. No. About cosmic statistical variance.
So, in the interest of science, superstition, and giving Craig something new to blame, I have conducted a full pre-session predictive analysis.
We asked - Given tonight is Friday the 13th is Our Session Likely to Go Better or Worse Than Usual?
ChatGPT commented - Statistically speaking, studies have shown that Friday the 13th has no measurable increase in disasters. However, those studies did not include: Craig, Dave’s reagent hoarding, Zaph’s quiet confidence, Myles trying to make everyone go home on time.
Therefore, adjusted for party composition, I predict:
32% chance of minor inconvenience.
48% chance of cascading catastrophe.
20% chance Craig discovers a new way to anger local fauna.
At this point we felt seen. Attacked. But seen.
So… How Accurate Was ChatGPT?
The mission went surprisingly well.
No-one died.
We achieved our objectives.
We got home with a huge haul of materials.
Dave unloaded stuff we could easily get to make room for all the iron ingots we had smelted.
Let me repeat that: Dave unloaded things.
Voluntarily.
To make room.
For iron.
Somewhere, a celestial statistician quietly tore up their notes.
So that’s an F for ChatGPT – clearly, faced with potential doom we took extra precautions and left Craig tied up in the house before we did the mission.
The Black Cat Clause
We asked - What happens if Dave Ships Down a Black Cat from the Station…
ChatGPT replied - If Dave insists on importing a black cat “for morale,” we must be clear: A black cat crossing your path brings bad luck. A black cat living in Craig’s backpack brings inevitability.
Within 12 minutes: The cat will knock over something expensive, Dave will attempt to domesticate alien wildlife, Zaph will quietly ask if the cat can be used as bait, Myles will be asked to build it a shelter.
The probability of a structural fire increases by 17%.
This felt plausible. Disturbingly plausible.
So what happened?
Dave unfroze a black cat and we let it roam around our home away from home – no-one was struck by lightning, no forest fires (although the cat did walk in the fire and set itself alight), no trees falling on the house. We lacked steel, so no cat bowls were made.
Yes.The cat walked into the fire.
Set itself on fire.
And still, somehow, the structure remained intact.
Dave wants to point out – No Cats, or Craig were harmed in this weeks adventure.
Again, I think that’s an F for ChatGPT.
The Glass Wall Apocalypse That Wasn’t
We asked - What happens if we build a Glass Wall and It Shatters?
ChatGPT, in full apocalyptic mode, declared:
Breaking a mirror brings 7 years of bad luck. Breaking a glass wall the size of Dave’s agricultural cathedral? Conservatively:
7 years per panel.
Multiplied by Craig testing structural integrity with a pickaxe.
Plus compound interest for shouting “I wanted to see what would happen.”
We are looking at generational misfortune. On the bright side, we will not live that long.
The maths was chilling.
So we couldn’t afford the generational misfortune, so Dave was tied up to prevent the building of glass walls. Craig collected stones anyway in case Dave escaped.
It was less a building project and more a hostage negotiation with architecture.
The Creepy Spider Addendum
We asked - What’s with all the Creepy Spiders?
ChatGPT replied - No superstition required here. Friday the 13th has contractual obligations with spiders.
This was less prediction and more legally binding fact.
Dave continued shaking out his boots.
The Return Home Omen
We asked - Are We Doomed for Returning Home After Starting our Journey?
If you remember last week, Myles forgot the key mission item. Without this we could travel all over the world, unable to complete the mission. So Zaph had to make the trip home to collect it.
ChatGPT replied -
According to Russian tradition, returning home after starting a journey—such as going back for a forgotten item—is a bad omen.
You are essentially tempting fate, knocking on its door, and asking if it has a quest marker.
This was when the nickname was born.
Just like we call Craig “Goldie” which is short for Gold Dragon, Myles will henceforth be known as Bad Mojo.
I accept this title with reluctant dignity.
ChatGPT’s Final Prediction
ChatGPT summed it all up with:
Are you doomed? No more than usual. Two scans and a trip home - What could possibly go wrong?
Which, in hindsight, is the most dangerous sentence in any language.
The Reality
So although it is Friday the 13th, there might be a black cat, Glass might shatter, Spiders are absolutely involved, and we already went back for a forgotten item after leaving, sometimes you just have to make your own luck.
Remember we have survived:
- Craig pick pocketing gold dragons.
- Dave hoovering loot and picking every flower…. during combat,
- Zaph’s “efficient” solutions.
- Myles Bad Mojo (unrealistic optimism).
Dave’s summation – ChatGPT, you are a pessimist, obviously, we work better under looming doom, and the mission was a breeze. We avoided giant scorpions, added a black cat to our household and brought back so much stuff.
Zaph discovered a new path to shorten our trip home; he built bridges over Crevasses and tried to lull Dave into a false sense of confidence, to no avail.
Dave almost drowned in drool just thinking of all the things he could make now. Electronics, baby, automated deep mining drills, cat bowls, rustic furniture, canteens, oxygen tanks, biofuel.
He stared at the smelters the way other men stare at sunsets.
Myles planned our next mission. Instead of just arriving and trying to work out what we needed to do, we researched (googled), pre-built everything and packed it in the cart.
We are now a professional expeditionary force.
With a cat.
Craig collected wood, sticks, and fibre without dropping a tree on the house. He also collected trophies from everything we killed.
This is measurable growth.
I am cautiously proud.
Did We Achieve Anything This Week?
ChatGPT still won’t predict if we will achieve anything, and yes, that’s because we officially suck.
We did get one actual achievement – you guess which one.
Dave achieved –
Cat-astrophy averted (bring down a cat from the workshop),
Roll-em-out (ride a hundred miles on a buffalo pulling a cart),
driving in the slow lane (always arrives last)
Myles achieved –
Over thunk it (Dave throws away all the stuff you didn’t need to pack),
Mission planner (plan another mission)
Craig achieved –
Lumberjack (Fell a tree without hitting the house),
Hunter (collect trophies from your kills)
Zaph achieved –
I missed (Missed a shot with a bow),
Ferrari (always arrives first)
ChatGPT achieved –
pessimist (predict Doom and Gloom – that didn’t happen).
And of course, we will be back next week to do it again as we set out to build a rustic cabin for someone else to live in.
Which means:
Dave will attempt to over-engineer it.
Zaph will optimize the travel route.
Craig will test structural integrity with enthusiasm.
And Bad Mojo will bring the correct item.
Probably.
Hakuna matata.
No worries.
What could possibly go wrong.


